I agree with this. If you look at aggregate polling, it seems like conservatism is on the decline. A common view, especially after Trump, is that as minorities become a larger share of the electorate, the GOP will drift into oblivion. However, I've been told by people who've studied this that if you do a deeper dive into the data you find that on a lot of the key issues conservatism is actually growing, it's just that people don't like associating the label or the GOP, for obvious reasons.
Since even before Trump the excesses of "wokeness", leftist attempts at censorship, and deranged SJW rhetoric have been driving people to the right. Yes, the crazies are a small minority of the left, but their statements and actions are what get signal boosted on social media. This is largely countered of course by equally if not more crazy people on the right like Trump and his acolytes driving people the opposite direction. But as the influence and grip of Trump and his crazies declines (driven by, if nothing else, Trump's physical decline), the forces driving people to the right may very well overpower the forces driving people the opposite way.
Having Republicans on board is particularly important for getting a carbon fee and dividend system passed. You can have much bigger impact, I think, as one of a handful of Republicans supporting X then another Democrat supporting X.
"Having Republicans on board is particularly important for getting a carbon fee and dividend system passed. You can have much bigger impact, I think, as one of a handful of Republicans supporting X then another Democrat supporting X"
Totally agree, same with air pollution, Yimbyism, technocratic/EA concerns about new technologies and artificial intelligence.
> However, I've been told by people who've studied this that if you do a deeper dive into the data you find that on a lot of the key issues conservatism is actually growing, it's just that people don't like associating the label or the GOP, for obvious reasons.
Can you point to specific reasons to believe this? I don't buy it at all.
When I look at the polling for each of the following, I see pretty much see conservatism in decline over the last 30 years, and progressivism on the rise:
But overall, I'm just not seeing evidence of a rise in conservatism in any traditional sense. It's of course possible that you could reframe the thesis in terms of the rise of Trumpism, which is a unique brand of conservatism that we didn't see until recently. Across the board though, 1990s conservatives just don't have much reason to be happy about current trends.
I think your examples are good and convincing- I agree with you overall
Some areas where the right is having success:
1) The spread of school choice.
2) Abortion. Public opinion is static, states are implementing new restrictions, Roe v Wade very likely to be overturned.
3) Guns. In the courts and in the spread of shall-issue laws and even constitutional carry laws.
4) Immigration. There was always a lot of popular support fo restrictionism on the right but the view was (mostly) denied influence by the establishment. Donald Trump changed that.
I agree with this. If you look at aggregate polling, it seems like conservatism is on the decline. A common view, especially after Trump, is that as minorities become a larger share of the electorate, the GOP will drift into oblivion. However, I've been told by people who've studied this that if you do a deeper dive into the data you find that on a lot of the key issues conservatism is actually growing, it's just that people don't like associating the label or the GOP, for obvious reasons.
Since even before Trump the excesses of "wokeness", leftist attempts at censorship, and deranged SJW rhetoric have been driving people to the right. Yes, the crazies are a small minority of the left, but their statements and actions are what get signal boosted on social media. This is largely countered of course by equally if not more crazy people on the right like Trump and his acolytes driving people the opposite direction. But as the influence and grip of Trump and his crazies declines (driven by, if nothing else, Trump's physical decline), the forces driving people to the right may very well overpower the forces driving people the opposite way.
Having Republicans on board is particularly important for getting a carbon fee and dividend system passed. You can have much bigger impact, I think, as one of a handful of Republicans supporting X then another Democrat supporting X.
"Having Republicans on board is particularly important for getting a carbon fee and dividend system passed. You can have much bigger impact, I think, as one of a handful of Republicans supporting X then another Democrat supporting X"
Totally agree, same with air pollution, Yimbyism, technocratic/EA concerns about new technologies and artificial intelligence.
> However, I've been told by people who've studied this that if you do a deeper dive into the data you find that on a lot of the key issues conservatism is actually growing, it's just that people don't like associating the label or the GOP, for obvious reasons.
Can you point to specific reasons to believe this? I don't buy it at all.
When I look at the polling for each of the following, I see pretty much see conservatism in decline over the last 30 years, and progressivism on the rise:
Gay marriage: https://news.gallup.com/poll/350486/record-high-support-same-sex-marriage.aspx
Marijuana legalization: https://news.gallup.com/poll/323582/support-legal-marijuana-inches-new-high.aspx
Immigration legalization: https://news.gallup.com/poll/1660/immigration.aspx
Pornography: https://news.gallup.com/poll/235280/americans-say-pornography-morally-acceptable.aspx
Teens having sex: https://news.gallup.com/poll/235415/four-say-teen-sex-morally-acceptable.aspx
Acceptability of abortion (slightly up): https://news.gallup.com/poll/350756/record-high-think-abortion-morally-acceptable.aspx
People who say the country needs to make changes to give blacks equal rights with whites: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2017/10/05/4-race-immigration-and-discrimination/
Acceptability of the death penalty: https://news.gallup.com/poll/357440/death-penalty-support-holding-five-decade-low.aspx
Support for labor unions: https://news.gallup.com/poll/354455/approval-labor-unions-highest-point-1965.aspx
People who say climate change will pose a serious threat in their own lifetime: https://news.gallup.com/poll/355427/americans-concerned-global-warming.aspx
Prison reform: https://news.gallup.com/poll/324164/fewer-americans-call-tougher-criminal-justice-system.aspx
LGBT self-identification: https://news.gallup.com/poll/389792/lgbt-identification-ticks-up.aspx
People who say they personally pay too much in taxes: https://news.gallup.com/poll/1714/taxes.aspx
Dissatisfaction with income mobility: https://news.gallup.com/poll/228980/americans-views-economic-mobility-economic-inequality-trends.aspx
Support for single-payer healthcare: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/29/increasing-share-of-americans-favor-a-single-government-program-to-provide-health-care-coverage/
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Now, there are a few issues where the trend goes the other way. One that surprised me was support for deregulation, which is apparently up: https://news.gallup.com/poll/389519/low-satisfaction-gov-regulation-businesses.aspx
There are also issues that have stabilized at a constant level, with no real increase or decrease. The percentage of people who say that the US benefits from having a class of rich people is one example: https://news.gallup.com/poll/154619/americans-having-rich-class-years-ago.aspx
But overall, I'm just not seeing evidence of a rise in conservatism in any traditional sense. It's of course possible that you could reframe the thesis in terms of the rise of Trumpism, which is a unique brand of conservatism that we didn't see until recently. Across the board though, 1990s conservatives just don't have much reason to be happy about current trends.
I think your examples are good and convincing- I agree with you overall
Some areas where the right is having success:
1) The spread of school choice.
2) Abortion. Public opinion is static, states are implementing new restrictions, Roe v Wade very likely to be overturned.
3) Guns. In the courts and in the spread of shall-issue laws and even constitutional carry laws.
4) Immigration. There was always a lot of popular support fo restrictionism on the right but the view was (mostly) denied influence by the establishment. Donald Trump changed that.